According to The Kobeissi Letter citing @Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has jumped to 43% following President Trump's new tariff threats. This heightened recession risk may trigger increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, as traders anticipate potential capital flows from equities to digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Kalshi via The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump announced at 7:19 AM ET that Apple ($AAPL) must relocate iPhone production to the USA or face a minimum 25% tariff, in response to Apple shifting manufacturing to India (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, May 23, 2025). The S&P 500 surged to 5820 following this statement as traders priced in potential supply chain changes and U.S. tech sector volatility. For cryptocurrency traders, this policy shift could drive increased market volatility and capital flows into digital assets as investors hedge against tech stock uncertainty and global trade tensions.